#Virginia's 4th Congressional District: Possible Candidates
VIRGINIA’s 4th DISTRICT - POSSIBLE CANDIDATES. Now that A. Donald McEachin’s 🌹 funeral has taken place, we’ll begin to focus on who might represent the people of Virginia’s 4th congressional district in Washington. Hell yes the chart below is vast but now is the time to consider the wide range of talented individuals in the Commonwealth. The seat is certain to stay blue but the GOP may get adventurous with no incumbent involved.
Though no one has announced anything formally, there are many possible candidates who may compete in a special election. A few people have said they’re happy where they are (Sen. Morrissey for example) but it’s clear many are considering running.
No one above has announced anything publicly. The 4th congressional district covers Chesterfield, Henrico, Prince George and Petersburg. It also includes Dinwiddie, Surry, Hopewell and Charles City. But the fact is the voters in Richmond will decide who will represent the 4th district. Whoever can dominate in Richmond with an energetic ground game and community buy-in will win the seat.
Veteran lawmakers, such as State Senator Jennifer McClellan, fmr. Del. Lashrecse Aird and Del. Lamont Bagby are obvious possible candidates. Members past and present who have served on city councils and school boards in the fourth are likely to at least consider running.
Many declared candidates for State Senate and State House races (to be run in 2023) may also be drawn to a run in the 4th — if a special election date is set early enough.
🚩 CLOSE U.S. HOUSE. The U.S. House for the 118th Congress will be one of the closest in recent memory. As of today, it appears Republicans will have 221 seats in the U.S. House and Democrats will have 213. The new U.S. Congress will be sworn-in on January 3, 2023. The Virginia General Assembly convenes on January 11, 2023.
A special election to fill the vacant State Senate seat of Rep-Elect Jennifer Kiggans between Democrat Aaron Rouse and Republican Kevin Adams will take place in Virginia’s 7th Senate District on January 10, 2023.
🚩 Other behind-the-scenes factors will play a part in who the Democratic nominee in the fourth will be. Several sitting members of Congress, notably, Rep. Bobby Scott, Sen. Tim Kaine, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and others will likely play a role in who has an advantage in the 4th. Though the voters will ultimately decide, party considerations around corporate Democrats have often been favored over more progressive candidates in special elections to Congress (read about see Jim Clyburn vs Nina Turner for more on that point).
There is also a trend in Congress that favors energetic community connected candidates and lightning-in-a-bottle activists who haven’t held elected office. Examples include Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Rep. Cori Bush or Missouri and the recent election of Rep.-elect Maxwell Frost in Florida.
There are several candidates who represent parts of Richmond. Clearly a vote spit can also cause all sorts of drama — but the party is likely to cement a way to prevent that behind the scenes. Though it’s unlikely that a candidate from outside the fourth district will run, the law doesn’t require residency in the district. With name recognition being a key factor in an unexpected special election with a short time window, the possibility can’t be ruled out.
SPECIAL ELECTION. Governor Glenn Youngkin must set a date for a special election. In other races across the country where a vacancy for a congressional seat that’s all but certain to be blue where a Republican is Governor, the vacancy has typically taken longer to fill. We should soon know the answer.
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