As Usual, Black Voters are Key as Luria + Spanberger Races Rated TOSS UP
SPANBERGER, LURIA AND BLACK VOTERS. Tomorrow, Oct. 30, Brooklyn, New York Congressman Hakeem Jeffries is traveling 370 miles South to Virginia Beach ten days before Election Day to be a special guest at an event in support of Rep. Elaine Luria.
As the result of redistricting and bad historic timing for the party in power at The White House (in this midterm election: Democrats), Luria’s race has been rated a “tossup” by the Cook Political Report. Luria’s opponent, Republican State Senator Jen Kiggans, is in a strong position in large part because of Democrats weak “let’s all play fair” instead of executing our power misadventures during redistricting.
The Virginia Beach Black Democratic Caucus is hosting Sunday’s event and Black Caucus members Michael Feggans, Alex Askew, Susan Hippen and Maurice Hawkins have been working hard and knocking doors for Luria for months. All involved have long understood that turnout in Black precincts in the second district, which is 20 percent Black, will be crucial for Luria. Her race is one of the most watched U.S. House races on the 2022 map.
Several recent local political events that have featured Black elected leaders focused on admonitions about the importance of protecting democracy and fair elections at a time when Trump MAGA Republicans are disputing Biden’s 2020 seven-million-vote-plus victory. The false election information coincides with deliberate attempts to drive political views with disinformation. Fox News is currently being sued for $1.6 billion by Dominion Voting Systems for defamation in a case Dominion is likely to win. There’s no evidence that Biden won unfairly but in an age of gaslighting driven by social media misinformation, many on the right have repeated the falsehoods for two years — even after the U.S. Capitol was violently attacked by Trump supporters.
MIDTERMS AND BLACK VOTERS. Even with the threat to basic tenants of democracy on the line, which is likely to land hardest on Black people, there is a sense that Democrats are on defense with 10 days left until Election Day.
Voting rights activists LaTosha Brown and Cliff Albright, of Black Voters Matter, are vocal about the record turnout in Georgia — including increasing numbers for Black men.
“To say turnout among Black men ‘lags overall’ is journalistic malpractice, especially when the data ‘in your own tweet’ shows a steady increase. In fact, the increase from ‘20 to ‘22 is even bigger than from ‘18 to ‘20. And in absolute number of votes, there’s clear increase,” Albright noted on twitter this week. Black men are one the least talked to and targeted constituencies under a crowded Democratic Party umbrella of interests. But the mistake of not focusing on Black voters, all of them, is an error Democrats can’t keep making with so much on the line. The often heard cliche that this year’s election “is the most important election” many in fact be true this time.
In Virginia the data from VPAP shows that the turnout is already above what it was in 2018. But what about Black turnout in Virginia? For the Democratic party, Black women are the number one voting block in support followed by Black men. But without the more detailed data it’s hard to currently see what the enthusiasm levels for Black voters is.
Something under the radar that Virginia Democrats may not be clearly understanding is that Black voters are responsive to specificities issues — just like all other voting blocks. Many have observed that when it comes to policy, Democrats have failed to deliver on voting rights on the federal level, police reform, qualified immunity, reparations, Black farmers compensation and other issues. But Democrats have delivered on HBCU funding (propelled by Rep. Bobby Scott), student loan relief, reducing child poverty and COVID relief — issues that assist all voters and disproportionately impact Black voters.
Question is: Why aren’t Democrats talking about that on the campaign trail?
Instead, the strategy in Virginia has been for white candidates to stand next to elected officials at rallies and press events, take photos of course and visited a few churches while failing to specifically articulate what policy they will champion that disproportionally impact Black voters in Virginia.
Less than two weeks ago yet another report became public that demonstrated that Black Virginians are pulled over more by police. In the same time period it was revealed that over 107,000 voter registrations in Virginia were “stalled” because of “a glitch” in the system. At a time when elections are being questioned and Republicans candidates, such as State Senator Kiggans. are refusing to clearly state that President Biden won the 2020 election legitimately, one would think Democrats would jump on the issue with a Republican Governor in the mansion.
In early October it was once again revealed in yet another report on police traffic stops in Virginia that Black motorists are disproportionately stopped by police. These reports are made public frequently demonstrating the same evidence of racial profiling with no end to the problem in sight.
The Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services reviewed 567,181 traffic stops made in the commonwealth from July 1, 2021 through March 31, 2022 and found that Black motorists are more likely to be stopped, searched and/or arrested.
On Oct. 12, House Minority Leader Don Scott told WRIC in Richmond that, “as an African American man, we know that these things happen and we know why. There is a lot of bias. There is bias in everything but, in policing, we should be trying to train it out and not trying to deny that it exists.”
“When you bring on new leadership that leadership should have an unanimous vote. When you do not receive a unanimous vote that tells you something about the person who wants to be the congressperson to represent Prince William County. We can not have that,” said Del. Luke Torian in a rousing speech at the Oct. 25 rally in Dumfies.
“We need Abigail Spanberger in Congress because she understands what it means to give vote and support for the right things. We don’t need someone who will vote against bringing on a new leader for this county,” said Del. Luke Torian at rally in Dumfries on Oct. 25.
Torian was referring to the Oct. 25 selection of Christopher Shorter to be County Executive of Prince William County, Shorter’s term begins on Jan. 3, 2023. Prince William Board of County Supervisors Jeanine Lawson and Yesli Vega, who is running against Spanberger, voted against Shorter. The speeches at the Dumfries events were on a great many things. But politicians appeared to be assuming that voters make decision based on political “big picture” considerations rather than grocery prices and the cost of gas per gallon.
An October poll by Change Research of Black 715 women voters showed they were motived to vote in the 2022 midterms “with an overwhelming majority citing pocketbook issues, like the cost of housing and groceries as core concerns,” as reported by Donna Owens for NBC News.
In Dumfries this week, Spanberger mentioned the expanded voting rights that became law because of the work of Democrats in the Virginia General Assembly but she didn’t speak on the broad array of issues impacting Black voters with specificity. Many may remember that Spanberger famously was loudly against the “defund police” effort pushed by the progressive left in the 2020 cycle. In April, Spanberger told Politico, “I thought that was a terrible idea,” regarding the “defund” slogan.
On Oct. 25, Spanberger’s race was moved from “lean D” to “toss up” by the Cook Political report.
“I am running for re-election because I love the job of representing people. I love the job of being out and about and hearing the concerns, the challenges and the realities of what people are facing across the country and across the Commonwealth,” Spanberger said speaking in general terms at the Oct. 25 rally.
House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn of South Carolina was a special guest for Spanberger in Dumfies. Clyburn spoke at great length about the history and importance of the Democrats holding the majority. He gave a historic analysis on how the majority in Congress is what passed the Voting Rights Act — after much compromise.
“Give me the House and give me the Senate and we’ll come back and get he rest after the next election,” Clyburn said quoting President Biden.
Will that message work? Will a sweeping general pitch on issues motivate Black voters at the percentages needed for Democrats to win in the 4th and 7th congressional districts? We will soon see.
Though polling shows that voter enthusiasm is high this cycle on both sides, the specific numbers in Virginia demonstrate that early vote turnout is way over what it was in 2018. Many assume that’s great for Democrats but big turnout didn’t lead to victory for Democrat Terry McAuliffe in 2021 in Virginia as political newcomer Glenn Youngkin won by over 63,688 votes.
During a candidate forum in Newport News, rep. Bobby Scott went in on his Republican opponent (who was a no-show) on protecting social security — something that Republicans in Congress are saying they will cut. Rep. Scott also detailed the benefits of the American Disabilities Act at the forum because the hosting organization was a local group of disabled citizens.
Virginia has recently had several close elections — particularly for House of Delegates races, which are in 2023. With the municipal elections for School Board and City Council on the same ballot as congressional races it remains to be seen what the numbers will be.
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